On January 14, the China iron and steel association, council in 2019, according to a report released to production the implementation of the strategic task, along with our country’s steel industry began to continue to improve, not only solve the excess capacity was finished ahead of 5 years 100 million tons – 150 million tons of the upper limit of the goal, first 11 months of 2018, member of the iron and steel enterprise total profit of 280.2 billion yuan, rose as high as 63.54%.According to reliable sources, as of January 14, eight steel companies have issued 2018 earnings forecasts, four of which are expected to double their full-year net profit last year.Chongqing iron & steel expects the highest growth, with a growth rate of more than 400 percent in 2018.Good news driven by the audience, January 14 steel plate pulled up significantly, shaoshan led up, bayi iron and steel, three steel minguang, xining special steel and other stocks have led up.Among them xining special steel strong seal trading board, the unit nearly a year trading 6 times.Steel steady positive in late January 11, due to report results for 2018 of anyang iron and steel, compared with 2017, 1.6 billion yuan net profit, in the steel industry in 2018 continued deepening supply side under the condition of structural reform, anyang iron and steel is expected in 2018 net profit growth of 9.32% to 19.94%, has realized the product production, sales income is rising steadily, the company product profitability and competitiveness.In addition, according to statistics, there are seven steel companies listed in the a-share market that have predicted the full-year performance of 2018 in the previous three quarterly reports of 2018.Four of them expect to double their full-year net profits in 2018.Chongqing steel expects growth of more than 400 percent in 2018.Changbao shares are expected to achieve a net profit of 470 million yuan to 540 million yuan in 2018, with a growth rate of 227.00% to 276.00%.The company expects to achieve a net profit of 268 million yuan to 308 million yuan in 2018, up by 100% to 130%.Shagang’s 2018 net profit is expected to be 1.128 billion yuan to 1.41 billion yuan, up 60 percent to 100 percent.The other three companies, minguang sansteel, yongxing special steel and jinzhou pipeline, are also expected to slightly increase or continue to increase their full-year performance in 2018, with the largest changes of 55%, 40% and 20% respectively.Held on January 14, the China iron and steel association, council in 2019, the China iron and steel association, river steel group party secretary, chairman of the board of directors in yong said that the iron and steel industry as the pioneer of lateral supply institutional reform, in 2018, around the “capacity, leverage, steady operation, quality, cost reduction, increasing benefits”, completed five years ahead of dissolve excess capacity 100 million tons to 150 million tons of the upper limit of target.In this way, the market environment has been significantly improved, the serious overcapacity problem has been effectively alleviated, high-quality production capacity has been brought into full play, and corporate performance has improved significantly.It is reported that due to good supply and demand connection, steel prices are basically stable in the reasonable range, the steel industry to further improve the efficiency.In the first 11 months of 2018, China iron and steel association member steel enterprises achieved sales revenue of 3.76 trillion yuan, up 14.17 percent year-on-year.Profits and taxes reached 414.9 billion yuan, up 50.14 percent year-on-year.The total profit reached 280.2 billion yuan, up 63.54 percent year-on-year.At the same time, the steel industry asset-liability ratio decreased, solvency improved significantly.On January 14, yu yong pointed out that although the international economic growth in 2019 May be difficult to pick up, but domestic, China’s long-term development prospects have not changed, China is still the world’s largest steel consumer market.Yu yong said, but also want to see, at the same time as the adjustment of economic structure, the main engine fuel economic growth from investment to consumption, the old and new kinetic energy conversion process, the new economic growth point of strength of steel demand weakened obviously, traditional steel industry demand for steel products by the type, quantity growth to quality and quality of ascension, are put forward higher requirements for the steel industry.In terms of the demand of downstream industries, according to the China iron and steel association, infrastructure investment (excluding power) growth rate stabilizes to 3.7% in the first 11 months of 2018, and infrastructure investment is expected to increase in 2019, as the government proposes to keep strengthening the weak links in infrastructure construction.Among them, shipbuilding industry demand will have small growth;Machinery and home appliance industries are expected to maintain steady demand for steel.For the real estate market and the auto market, which are most concerned by the market, yu yong introduced that since the second half of 2018, the real estate market has seen an increase in land sales and a decrease in real estate enterprises’ enthusiasm for land acquisition. It is expected that key indicators such as investment and new construction area may decline in 2019.Whether the auto industry can maintain its auto production and sales growth in 2019 will largely depend on the stimulus policies to encourage consumption.There are two major changes in the steel industry in 2019. First, the demand cycle peaks and falls; second, the supply-side capacity reduction is completed ahead of schedule and the marginal reduction of environmental protection limits is weakened.In particular, in the context of supply-side reform, large-scale expansion of industrial capacity is almost impossible, while capacity utilization rate falls slightly but remains high. There is no basis for steel price to keep falling, and the seasonal recurring and overshooting price rebound will run through the whole year of 2019.
Post time: Jan-18-2019