It is reported that Malaysia’s exports in April 2019 have rebounded slightly after two consecutive years of year-on-year declines since February.Exports rose 1.1% to rm8.52 billion in April, the country’s ministry of international trade and industry (Miti) announced.
While some believe the trade shift will boost Malaysia’s exports, most are pessimistic about export growth amid rising trade tensions between China and the us.
Julia Goh, senior economist at uob in Malaysia, notes that the us raised tariffs on China after the collapse of trade talks with the us in early may.In addition, U.S. President Donald trump plans to impose 5 percent tariffs on Mexican goods, among other things.”All of these news developments set the tone for an escalation of global trade tensions that will further impact global demand.At this critical juncture, Malaysia’s exports will face more downside risks in the second half of 2019 if uncertainties increase, “she said.
On the other hand, the increase in exports of electrical and electronic products reflects that Malaysia is actually benefiting from trade tensions in some ways, said Alan Tan, chief economist at HSBC.This means that companies affected by higher tariffs between the us and China may have reallocated their resources to other countries (in this case, Malaysia).
He thinks China’s stimulus measures in 2019 will provide some support for growth this year, while the U.S. economy will continue to be supported by domestic demand.
“As long as the trade rift does not escalate into a full-blown trade war, Malaysia’s exports will continue to grow,” he told edge financial daily.Tan expects Malaysia’s exports to grow by 2% in 2019 and expects a trade surplus of rm110 billion.
Post time: Jun-05-2019